Prediction Markets · LiveMarkets

Trade Your Convictions

Turn your beliefs into tradable assets. Watch the crowd price every event, outcome, and upset in real time.

Why Conviction Markets?

Sensei turns every strong take into a position you can size, trade, and settle on-chain.

+Create your market…

Permissionless market creation

Spin up a market on any real-world question in seconds. Anyone can list, anyone can trade.

Live LS-LMSR pricing

Adaptive liquidity keeps prices honest on niche side bets too. No order book required.

Match settled

YES wins

Resolved

Fast on-chain resolution

Markets settle the moment the whistle blows, secured by Solana and verified on-chain.

FAQ

What is a conviction market?

A conviction market is an open, tradable Yes/No market where you put real financial weight behind your strongest takes. Conviction markets let anyone create and trade outcomes for any real-world event — sports, politics, crypto, entertainment — with prices reflecting live trader consensus.

Who can create a market on Sensei?

Anyone with a connected wallet. List a question — "Will Bitcoin close above $100k?", "Will this bill pass?" — pick the resolution source, post the liquidity bond, and it goes live the moment it confirms on-chain.

How does trading work?

Sensei runs an LS-LMSR automated market maker. You buy YES or NO shares; the price reflects the live probability the crowd assigns to the outcome. Sell anytime before the match locks — your P&L is the difference between entry and exit price.

How are matches resolved?

When the official result is final, the market resolves on-chain using the configured oracle source. Winning shares pay out 1 USDC each; losing shares go to zero. Disputed results route to admin arbitration before settlement.

How do I deposit and withdraw funds?

Deposit USDC from any Solana wallet through the in-app Deposit modal — funds become your trading balance instantly. Withdrawals are non-custodial and process on-chain, typically within seconds.

When does the public app launch?

Sensei is moving to Solana mainnet for real USDC markets. New markets seed continuously across every category, with launch timing announced through the newsletter below.

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